Collierville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

995
FXUS64 KMEG 021148
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
548 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 548 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Temperatures will warm to near normal on Monday with rain
  chances returning Tuesday.

- The end of the week will be dry with temperatures slightly below
  normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

10 PM radar imagery depicts a batch of snow flurries moving
across the Mid-South. This activity will continue through
sunrise, leaving behind little to no accumulations. Another
chilly morning is anticipated as lows fall into the 20s areawide.
Impressive warming will occur through the afternoon as southwest
winds advect warm and moist air into the region. Afternoon highs
will top out in the 40s and 50s, allowing residual snow and ice
to resume melting.

Our weather pattern will change on Tuesday as a shortwave and
attendant cold front trek over the Mid-South. Ahead of this
system, moist air will overspread the region with precipitable
water values climbing to the 90th percentile. Rain chances will
increase in the morning with light showers developing from west
to east. This activity will linger into Tuesday night, though
guidance continues to decrease totals with each model run. The
latest LREF shows a 30% chance of greater than 0.5" of rain
falling in northeast Mississippi through Wednesday morning.
Elsewhere, these probabilities decrease.

Behind the front, temperatures will drop well below normal.
Thursday morning will be the chilliest as lows bottom out in the
upper teens to low 20s. Luckily, these temperatures won`t last
long as southwest winds return by Thursday afternoon. Friday is
forecast to be the warmest day in recent memory as highs climb
into the 50s and 60s. Long range guidance continues to hint at
another frontal passage on Saturday. Run-to-run inconsistencies
regarding precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday make the
forecast a bit murky into next week. However, climate models
continue to favor slightly above normal temperatures through the
second week of February.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

High confidence in VFR through midnight tonight as high pressure
exits the region. Guidance is in very good agreement on
conditions deteriorating early Tuesday morning as a cold front
approaches. W/SW LLWS around 45 kts will start up shortly after
midnight for JBR and MEM, though confidence is lower at TUP and
MKL. IFR ceilings and -SHRA associated with the front move in at
the tail end of the extended MEM TAF and will likely need to be
added to the other terminals with the next issuance. Surface
winds are expected to remain light and generally
south/southwesterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Fire weather conditions are not anticipated this week due to
light winds and MinRH above 45 percent. Wetting rain chances
return Tuesday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD